Updated January 8, 2020
DISCLAIMER: I wear my mask, wash my hands and try not to touch my face. I limit my social interactions. I follow most rules, even though many don't make sense. This is NOT a “COVID hoax” or “anti-vaxxer” post.
I agreed with lockdown measures that were taken in March 2020, when a lot was unknown. We did not have full knowledge of whom the virus affected and we did not have better treatment measures.
But science and data over the last 10 months has clearly shown that our approach needs to change.
“Where all think alike, no one thinks very much” Walter Lippmann, 2-time Pulitzer Prize winner SO WHO IS COVID DEADLY FOR? Data from government public health websites.
PUBLIC HEALTH CANADA
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... s.html#fn1 Out of 16435 COVID related deaths in Canada, 89.2% are in the 70+ age group. Percentage of COVID deaths in the 0-49 age group: 1.1% (this is a total of 192 COVID related deaths in Canada) NOTE: It is important to make the distinction that just because someone dies WITH COVID does not mean that they died BECAUSE of COVID. COVID deaths may be inflated due to this distinction. False positive cases may further inflate this number (more on this later). LONG TERM CARE HOMES
https://ltc-covid19-tracker.ca 70.3% of all COVID related deaths in Canada have been in long term care homes
PUBLIC HEALTH ALBERTA
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-a ... istics.htm Average age of COVID-related death in Alberta: 82 years old. Out of 1241 COVID related deaths in Alberta, 97.1% have had 1 or more co-morbidities. Here is the breakdown: * 3 or more comorbidities: 75.0% * 2 comorbidities: 14.4% * 1 comorbidity: 7.7% * No comorbidity: 2.9% (highly likely to be in the older age demographic)
NOTE: Comorbidities included are: Diabetes, Hypertension, COPD, Cancer, Dementia, Stroke, Liver Cirrhosis, Cardiovascular diseases (including IHD and Congestive heart failure), Chronic Kidney disease, and Immuno-deficiency. STATSCAN REPORT: COVID 19 DEATH COMORBIDITIES IN CANADA (from the first wave, until July 31, 2020)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45- ... 87-eng.htm - 90% of all COVID-involved deaths had at least 1 comorbidity.
- ALL COVID-involved deaths in Canada under the age of 45 had at least 1 other disease/condition certified on the medical certificate of death.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? We must acknowledge that these stats are all people and each number represents a human loss. We are all empathetic to that.
Now, the data clearly states the obvious: 1. A LARGE majority of COVID related deaths have and are still occurring in long term care homes. 2. COVID is a deadly threat to persons with co-morbidities and/or persons above the age of 70. It is not a LONE killer by itself. Note that any disease is dangerous to this population set, not just COVID. 3. For a healthy person below the age of 70, there is greater than 99% chance of COVID recovery. This is no worse than the flu.
This is all good news, because we know who COVID affects and who we desperately need to protect. We also have other good news…
GOOD NEWS #1: VITAMIN D3 DATA Vitamin D acts a key function for strengthening our immune system and is primarily acquired through sunlight exposure. There is a strong correlation that a Vitamin D deficiency will likely result in a serious case of a COVID infection, lowering hospitalizations, deaths and long-term COVID effects.
Vitamin D3 was shown to be deficient in 80% of hospitalized COVID patients in Spain [2].
The most comprehensive scientific study of Vitamin D deficiency in correlation to COVID patients was conducted in India over a span of 6 weeks [3]. Out of 154 patients, 63 severe cases needed ICU. Out of these, 61 patients (97%) had a Vitamin D deficiency. Overall, India has shown to have a lower strain of COVID, possibly because Vitamin D deficiency hits a much lower percentage of the population (due to more sunlight).
The UK government has already promoted Vitamin D to the entire population and is giving out free vitamin D handouts to persons most at risk for COVID [4].
4000 IU daily is recommended to create a strong immune response to COVID [5].
GOOD NEWS #2: BETTER COVID TREATMENTS Doctors have improved the mortality rates of severe COVID cases, using better ICU procedures. A person hospitalized in March 2020 was 3 times more likely to die than someone hospitalized in August 2020 [6].
GOOD NEWS #3: ASYMPTOMATIC % At least 17% of the population is estimated to be asymptomatic to COVID [7]. Many are immune to the danger of COVID.
The converse argument, of course, is the possible asymptomatic spread of infection which is difficult to detect. However, if an asymptomatic person does not interact with the vulnerable portion of the population, then what difference does it make?
Instead, why not focus on controlling spread in the SMALLER vulnerable demographic where it really matters?
BAD NEWS #1: LOOKING AT CASE NUMBERS USING FLAWED PCR TESTING PCR tests, in their current form, are faulty and ineffective [9]. In Dec 2020, the World Health Organization confirmed what was known for months; that high cycle threshold PCR tests result in a high amount of false positives and that testing labs around the world need to reduce their threshold values [10]. The US FDA has also warned of the risk of false positives from PCR tests [8].
It is important for everyone to understand what a Polymerase Chain Reaction test does. A PCR test is looking for RNA, which is a small particle of any cell (just like DNA). In this case, we are looking for the coronavirus RNA.
The amount of RNA in a saliva/nasal swab is very small, so PCR tests amplify the sample to help detect it. Each cycle doubles the material. One becomes two. In the next cycle, two is amplified to four, and so on. In Canada, and most of the world, specimens are amplified to a minimum value of at least 35 cycle thresholds (Ct). That creates over 17 billion copies of the material, enough to be able to detect any viral particle.
However, a Canadian National Microbiology study stated that specimens with Ct values greater than 24 were found to be viral culture negative [11]. What does this mean?
That if RNA is found at a Ct value of 35, the virus cannot be cultured. It cannot be grown. Because it is DEAD. The RNA is simply a remnant of a past COVID infection. A FALSE POSITIVE CASE. This case does not reflect an active infection nor is it contagious. That person was infected weeks or months ago.
This has been known irrefutable scientific fact for months: PCR tests are not reliable unless we REDUCE Ct values. Why are we creating worldwide mitigation policies based on this?
Lastly, and most importantly, using number of cases for policy making does not reflect the bigger picture. Someone with little or no symptoms of illness is NOT a case.
Instead, our main concern should this: How many of those cases are getting HOSPITALIZED and who is DYING?
THE BAD NEWS #2: LONG COVID Long term effects of COVID; persistent symptoms such as fatigue, headaches, respiratory, brain and heart issues can continue for weeks and months for some COVID cases. While there is still more research to be done, here is what we know so far.
King’s College London and the UK National Health Service have compiled the largest data set on this topic, using information from 4182 confirmed COVID cases [12]. Here was the breakdown of how many experienced long COVID, by duration of symptoms. The study also states that these numbers were comparable to Sweden and USA.
- 4 weeks: 13.3% (1 out of 7 cases)
- 8 weeks: 4.5% (1 out of 20 cases)
- 12 weeks 2.6% (1 out of 50 cases)
The susceptibility to experience long COVID is increased by the following factors, but can occur in low proportions in healthy individuals as well:
- Increased age
- Severity of COVID infection (i.e. number of COVID symptoms experienced in the first week)
- Obesity
Long COVID is a definitely a concern, but it does not warrant ignoring the negative long-term health effects of a lockdown.
BAD NEWS# 3: LOCKDOWNS DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD If you believe that a lockdown puts life and health ahead of the economy, you have been gravely misled. Lockdowns kill and destroy more lives than save lives.
The World Health Organization themselves do not advocate for lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus [13].
The first and very comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of a lockdown in Canada was performed by Dr. Ari Jaffe, an infectious disease expert, who initially supported lockdowns but is now a strong opponent. His study concluded that the lockdowns in Canada will result in 10 statistical lives lost for every 1 COVID life saved [14].
Reasons for these lockdown deaths is due to restricted medical care such as
- delay of elective surgeries
- undiagnosed heart and cancer patients
- lack of accessible treatment for current patients
Moreover, the following repercussions of a lockdown are also not taken into account. All of these have a negative impact on life expectancy and illness.
- Mental Health
- Social Isolation (top 3 predictor of heart disease)
- Suicides
- Domestic Abuse
- Drug Abuse and Alcoholism
- Poverty and accompanying Malnutrition/Starvation
- Children’s Education and Childhood Trauma
The Canadian Mental Health Association concluded a study on all of the above, with 3027 participants Canada wide [15]. Here are some highlights:
- 10% experienced recent thoughts or feelings of suicide (up from 2.5% pre-pandemic).
- 40% have had their mental health decline during the pandemic
- 27% are worried about putting food on the table
- 18% report fearing physical and mental abuse while trapped at home
- Ontario experienced a 38% increase in drug overdose deaths during the 15 weeks of the first wave lockdown[36]
A Canadian Psychiatric Research report has projected an increase of between 418-2114 excess suicides in Canada (depending on 1.6% to 10.7% increase in unemployment) [16].
Lastly, lockdowns are causing our general health and immunity to be being lowered. We are locked down at home, with increasing mental health issues, stress, lack of sunlight and lack of exercise. This further lowers our bodies’ response to any sort of infection, including COVID.
Using lockdowns, we have only looked at short term gratification, while disregarding long term destruction.
BAD NEWS #4: HOSPITAL OVERCAPACITY The ideal measure to avoid a lockdown is to increase hospital capacity as much as possible.
Unfortunately, hospital space and staff shortages have always been a problem, even before the pandemic [17]. Every flu season in the last 3 years has had hospitals running at over capacity. Don’t let COVID distract you from the historical failures of the government.
This may sound ludicrous, but a simple online search will prove it. Here are a few news articles from previous years addressing that concern:
Dec 2017:
https://bit.ly/38wEqwn Feb 2018:
https://bit.ly/2M5dIU4 Jan 2020:
https://bit.ly/3nZ5laR Canada, despite being one of the biggest spenders for health care, sits far behind for services provided. As of 2019, out of 28 developed countries, here is how Canada ranked [18]:
- Doctors: 26th (2.8 doctors per 1000 people)
- Hospital Beds: 26th (2 beds per 1000 people)
Between Mar 15-Jun 13, 2020 (the first lockdown), the Ontario surgical backlog had an average increase of a whopping 11413 surgeries per week.
This led to a total of 150000 backlogged surgeries, which is estimated to take 84 weeks to clear (almost 1.5 years) [19].
We were completely unprepared for additional medical concerns, let alone a pandemic. Why has the government not addressed the hospital capacity issue? This is the most IMPORTANT factor in avoiding a lockdown.
Why is the public paying the price for government inadequacy? BAD NEWS #5: CANADA’S ECONOMIC SITUATION Socio-economic factors are the greatest indicator for the health of the population. Lack of finances do affect mental health, physical health and life expectancy. Look at any third-world country. Look at the impoverished demographic of any population set.
Canadian Annual Deficit: 2019: $19.8 Billion [20] Projected for March 2021: $381.6 to $398.7 Billion [21] This is an increase in deficit of almost 2000%. THIS IS REAL. This is NOT a typo. Imagine your $20,000 student loan becoming $398,000. By far, this is the HIGHEST deficit in Canadian history.
Within the last year, Canada has had the worst increase in Debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, which has risen by 80% [22]. We have spent the most amount of money in proportion to what our economy generates.
Our Minister of Finance resigned during the summer. A day after the Fall Economic statement was released on Nov 30, 2020, our Deputy Minister of Finance also resigned.
Our current Minister of Finance has no background in this field. Watch this video of her in Parliament:
https://fb.watch/23ypw_Ru1_/ The following industries have been devastated: Aviation, Tourism, Entertainment, Hospitality, Restaurants, Fitness, Retail
Our official unemployment rate in October 2020 was listed at 8.9% [23]. This is deceiving. This is artificially held low by government subsidies and by ridiculous requirements to be considered “unemployed”.
The true unemployment number could be as high as 30%, if not more [24]. That means a staggering 10 million Canadians unemployed.
218000 small-to-medium businesses are at risk of closing permanently [25]. That is 1 out of every 5 businesses. This was based on July 2020 data, before a second lockdown was announced, and is clearly much worse now.
On the other hand, large corporations are thriving. The price of a lockdown is not equally borne across the Canadian population.
We are all in the SAME storm, but not the SAME boat.
WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT STILL IMPLEMENTING SUCH DAMAGING POLICIES? This all started with a wildly incorrect and catastrophic model of COVID deaths by Dr. Neil Ferguson, from the Imperial College in the U.K. He projected that, unmitigated, COVID-19 would kill 326,000 in Canada this year [26]. Similar projections were made for other countries. Dr. Ferguson’s faulty projections, without being reviewed, led to a swift global lockdown and mass hysteria.
Using the Wuhan lockdown as a example, with a “75% reduction in interpersonal contact rates” however, he predicted deaths would fall to under 46,000 in Canada. Coming to the end of 2020, we are at approximately 15000 COVID related deaths in Canada [1]. While that is still a tragic number, it is nowhere close to what was predicted.
Dr. Ferguson has a history of incorrect modeling, apart from COVID. [26] [27]
- predicted 40000 COVID deaths in Sweden by May 2020, with no lockdown. By then, Sweden actual deaths were under 3000.
- 2002: predicted 150000 deaths from Mad Cow Disease. Actual toll was 2704.
- 2005: predicted 150 million people would be killed by the bird flu. Between 2003-2009, actual toll was 282.
- 2009: predicted swine flu could lead to 65000 U.K. deaths. Actual toll: 457 people.
In March 2020, Dr. Ferguson admitted that his COVID modeling was based on a 13-year old computer code that was intended for a “feared influenza pandemic”.
We shut down the world based on this? No one looked for a second opinion? His reckless advice set a dangerous precedent for lockdown policies and abuse of human and constitutional rights.
If the government realized and changed their approach now, it would essentially mean admitting they are wrong. (Personally, I feel they have succumbed to tunnel vision).
How can they reverse course without getting politically skewered for going all in on what is now by far the largest public spending campaign ever, the most significant restriction on free society ever and the greatest peacetime damage ever inflicted on a generation, socially and economically, in modern history when it turns out it didn't make much of a difference? (Credit: Josh Kocher)
Instead, politicians have used the new “science” of DEMAGOGY -
political activity or practices that seek support by appealing to the desires, prejudices and emotions of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument. Implement measures that make us FEEL safe instead of what is ACTUALLY safe. With only COVID in the spotlight, actions are based on “optics”. As long as COVID lives are down, why bother with the collateral damage from a lockdown and its accompanying non-COVID deaths? Politicians don’t have to wipe that blood off their hands. Ignorance is bliss. Let’s save 1 COVID life that is in the public eye, but it will cost 10 lives down the road, not in the public eye. This is known as the Corona Dilemma (see attached pictures) [14].
If we had always put health ahead of the economy, here’s what would have happened a long time ago.
- Alcohol would be banned
- Tobacco would be banned (21918 deaths/day globally) [14]
- Highly processed and fried foods would be banned
- MORE climate change and air pollution prevention measures would be put in place.
- Driving would be banned (3699 deaths/day globally) [14]
- We would instill a lockdown during every flu season to conserve hospital capacity. NOTE: 230000-650000 people die globally of the common flu every year [28].
Doing the above would save millions of lives globally. But we accept those risks despite high fatality numbers, in order to stimulate the economy. We leave the decisions to drive cars, consume alcohol, eat fried foods and smoke in the hands of the people. (Yes, they are not CONTAGIOUS so it’s a different form of threat, but a death is a death, specially if it is statistically preventable).
Another important point to consider is that politicians are making decisions while being completely protected from the consequences of their decisions. Their salary stays the same and their large pensions fully protected. This is a position of PRIVILEGE.
WHY IS THE PUBLIC SUPPORTING THESE POLICIES? For the general public, there are many working from home with pay. They have little to lose with a lockdown, so it is easy to support it. Again, a position of privilege. They are unaware of our country’s disastrous economic situation or the dangerous effects of a lockdown.
But more importantly, public support is being driven by mass hysteria; from the fear-mongering and sensationalizing of news by irresponsible journalism and incompetent politicians.
QUESTIONS FOR THE GOVERNMENT QUESTION: Why are high cycle threshold PCR tests still being used as the lone source for creating broad policies, despite their known inaccuracy and unsuitability? Can we stop with the constant regurgitating of daily case numbers?
QUESTION: Why are long term care facilities still experiencing COVID related deaths and not being protected better?
QUESTION: Why is the rest of Canada shut down when a distinct majority of the COVID related deaths are occurring in long term care homes, in age groups of 70+ and persons with co-morbidities?
QUESTION: Why do thousands of small businesses have to suffer when there is no proof that they are responsible for COVID transmissions?
Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table [29]: Restaurants, bars and clubs were the source of 0.7% of all COVID transmissions in Ontario. In fact, 58% of COVID cases do not know how and where the person was infected. The primary known source, close contact, adds up to 45% of Ontario COVID transmissions [29]. This means an unmasked setting for a prolonged period near someone close to you.
Have we seen Walmart and Costco take the contact information of every customer that enters the premises? No tracing = no cases = let them stay open.
Our politicians are blindly flailing at theories and superstitions to control this virus. How can a politician rob someone of their entire livelihood based on a hunch?
QUESTION: What is considered essential? Who decides this? Why is the LCBO (alcohol store ) open but gyms are not? To every person who is about to lose their job or business, is that not considered ESSENTIAL?
QUESTION: Why is a cost-benefit-result analysis not mentioned in any government policy? QUESTION: Why has the government not put out a simple disclaimer to increase our Vitamin D3 intake, especially during the winter months? This one measure can possibly yield the MOST result with LEAST effort and collateral damage.
QUESTION: Why has the government not volunteered to take a pay cut, given that most of the population is suffering economically? Don’t CEOs take a pay cut when their company is in financial trouble?
NOTE: The New Zealand PM and her ministers took a 6-month 20% pay cut in April 2020 [30].
SIDENOTE: A Canadian MP who only holds 6 years in office gets a lifelong pension. Even a war veteran does not get this benefit [31]
QUESTION: Why are these policies being made behind closed doors? The Ontario government has abused its arbitrary emergency powers to make policies without the input of ALL members of Parliament. When did we give up democracy? Watch The Ontario Government Being Questioned About This In Parliament:
https://fb.watch/22j-hpTDiL/ Why have those affected financially not been given a choice? If someone has to worry about putting food on the table and a roof over their head, they should have the right to go out and make a living. Let them decide for themselves whether they are willing to risk contracting COVID (a disease with a lethality rate of under 1% for the younger healthy working population).
QUESTION: Why is every international arrival subject to an archaic 14-day quarantine, when the Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Tam herself has said that there is little - if any - evidence of COVID transmission aboard aircraft? [32]
COVID transmission through travel primarily occurred BEFORE mitigation measures were implemented. Now, it is one of the safest public places you can be in.
As of Jan 2, 2020, travel has only accounted for 2.5% of all COVID cases in Canada (with a known exposure setting). Most of these travel related cases are from early in the pandemic, before restrictions were placed [1].
Read the following fact-based article: The Irrational Fear Around Air Travel Needs To Stop (And We Need To Use Science Based Measures Instead): https://bit.ly/3rnS3GT Why is rapid testing not conducted on arriving passengers? Results from the McMaster Health Lab rapid test study at Toronto Pearson airport:
99.7% were cleared or detected for COVID on arrival [34].
QUESTION: If someone got COVID and has recovered, they have built natural immunity. Why do they need to be vaccinated?
DOCTORS AROUND THE WORLD ARE SPEAKING OUT Great Barrington Declaration:
https://gbdeclaration.org World Doctors Alliance: Letter to Citizens and Governments of the World:
https://worlddoctorsalliance.com MOVING FORWARD: WHAT DO WE DO NOW? We have had 11 months to prepare and learn more. A lot is still unknown about COVID but A LOT IS KNOWN.
COVID is here now and we cannot stop it; that’s the harsh truth. Risk and harm cannot be completely eliminated. COVID will affect some people; that is unavoidable. It cannot be the SOLE reason behind making broad policies.
COVID is a harmful virus but not the killer virus it was projected to be.
There is a fine line between learning to live with COVID vs paralyzing our lives due to COVID, which we crossed a long time ago. Why are we hiding from COVID when we should use our knowledge to fight against it? Let’s stop the shortsighted and reactionary decision making.
We are we so focused on “number of cases and infections”? The test results are not reliable, and infections pose little or no harm to most of the younger healthy population. The important data is “number of hospitalizations and deaths”. In other words, shift our energy from “how do we limit COVID SPREAD?” to “how do we limit COVID DAMAGE?”
The long-term health and financial effects of a lockdown need to be considered. A lockdown will only transfer lives lost and destroyed. It will not save the overall excess deaths to a population. In fact, it will increase them in the long term.
The ONLY way out of this pandemic is through herd immunity, either naturally or through a vaccine. That vaccine is at least more than a year away for most people (another governmental failure). Moreover, there are many who will choose not to take a vaccine (personally, I will take it). We cannot have another 6 months of lockdowns. Every single day adds incredible amounts of short and long term damage.
A SUMMARY OF WHAT SHOULD BE DONE: (Edit) Firstly, we should continue precautions to limit COVID spread. These are mitigation measures that
may yield results without collateral damage: masks, wash hands frequently, don’t touch your face, reasonably limit social interactions.
I hope it’s clear: the problem isn’t number of cases. It’s the number of deaths and number of hospitalizations.
We know one thing for sure: Lockdowns should be our absolute last measure and that they will still come at a serious cost to society. Lockdowns are a REACTIVE measure to avoid getting hospitals overloaded.
Our most helpful measure to avoid a lockdown would have been to increase hospital capacity, but the government has failed us there.
Moreover, implement the actions below:
- Offer Focused Protection for the following: long term care homes, the vulnerable population and those that have UNAVOIDABLE interaction with them. The measure alone may reduce COVID related deaths by 90+%. Even if the above demographic is half of the Canadian population, at least the other half don’t need to be locked down.
- Let everyone else live normally, if they CHOOSE (of course, with cautionary measures)
- Promote a healthy lifestyle, nutritious diet and increase Vitamin D intake for EVERYONE. This alone may reduce the number of hospitalizations, severe cases and long COVID.
- BONUS MEASURE: All politicians need to take a pay cut. Sign the following petition: https://www.truenorthinitiative.com/politicians_need_to_cut_their_salaries
LET ME BE CLEAR. This is not about Lives VS. Economy. Health policy has been mistakenly sold as such. The truth is that a Focused Protection approach will save more lives and protect the economy. It’s a win-win.
This is about using everything we know to have an all-inclusive approach and look at the bigger long-term picture. To make decisions using science, data and logic, as opposed to fear and emotion.
Enough damage has been done. Don’t make the CURE worse than the virus. Don’t let political agendas get in the way of real help.
Free discourse is important because it helps to prevent bad ideas from blossoming and spreading.
We cannot simply accept the first viewpoint presented to us. Science requires many different points of view, rigorously tested, before arriving to a conclusion [35]. Science DEMANDS opposing opinions. Propaganda, on the other hand, silences it.
Something is VERY wrong when there is massive blowback to any questioning of the narrative. Something is VERY wrong when fear has become a virtue and courage a vice [35].
Something is VERY wrong when law enforcement questions the government about why they are forced to abandon their oath to the Charter Of Rights & Freedoms. Read their letter: https://bit.ly/3nW0Mhu
Please copy, paste or share this message if you agree.
SHARE ORIGINAL FACEBOOK POST: https://bit.ly/2IRbRRC
Samad Kadri
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REFERENCES
[1] https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... s.html#fn1
[2] https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/more-than ... -1.5162396
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... n-d-supply
[5] https://www.nutraingredients.com/Articl ... in-D-alarm
[6] https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/11/03/ ... s-improve/
[7] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3
[8] https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/saf ... RHTwitterD
[9] https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
[10] https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-202 ... -ivd-users
[11] https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/10/2663/5842165
[12] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20214494v2
[13] https://www.narcity.com/en-ca/news/lock ... rol-method
[14] https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/20 ... 2/download
[15] https://cmha.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020 ... NAL-EN.pdf
[16] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 8120310386
[17] https://globalnews.ca/news/7464926/coro ... -capacity/
[18] https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/d ... mary_0.pdf
[19] https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/44/E1347
[20] https://www.budget.gc.ca/2019/docs/plan/toc-tdm-en.html
[21] https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal ... -1.5209807
[22] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/ ... dp-covid19
[23] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-q ... 6a-eng.htm
[24] https://www.thestar.com/business/opinio ... ke-30.html
[25] https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/sites/default/ ... losing.pdf
[26] https://www.iedm.org/the-flawed-covid-1 ... wn-canada/
[27] https://www.nationalreview.com/cornep ... grace/amp/
[28] https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... every-year
[29] https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/1 ... tario.html
[30] https://globalnews.ca/news/6820459/jaci ... s-pay-cut/
[31] https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board ... -plan.html
[32] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid- ... -1.5797065
[33] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data.html
[34] https://mcmasterhealthlabs.ca/pdf/MHL%2 ... Tr6W2NgSCw
[35] https://financialpost.com/opinion/2020- ... he-science
[36] https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/o/2020/opioid-mortality-covid-surveillance-report.pdf?la=en
COVID-19 Megathread #58
This is a megathread to consolidate discussion about the COVID-19 outbreak. This thread is a place for discussion, personal anecdotes of providing COVID care, brief updates, and professional questions about the epidemiology and management of COVID-19. Reputable sources (not unverified twitter posts!) are still requested to support any new claims about the outbreak.
We will be hosting a new megathread periodically depending on developments/content. The latest thread will always be stickied and will provide the most up-to-date information. If you just posted something in the previous thread right before it got unstickied and your question wasn't answered/your point wasn't discussed, feel free to repost it in the latest one. If the active COVID megathread isn't stickied, please notify the moderators
by modmail with a link to the thread.
Background and summary
On December 31st 2019, Chinese authorities reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. A novel zoonotic virus was suspected and discovered, now named SARS-CoV-2. The syndrome of viral pneumonia caused by this virus -- sometimes associated with abnormal coagulation parameters, anosmia, anorexia, renal failure, and/or gastrointestinal distress -- has been termed COVID-19.
Despite extreme public health interventions at the first epicenter in Hubei province, China, the outbreak has become a global pandemic. Several factors have made for explosive spread of SARS-CoV-2: the human population is immunologically naive, the virus has a long incubation period and can be asymptomatically spread, and is highly infectious, with an rate of transmission significantly higher than epidemic influenza. Unfortunately, COVID-19 has proven deadly as well, with case fatality rate (CFR) estimates ranging between 0.1 to 1% or more. To date, an estimated 63 million people have been infected and some 1.5 million people have lost their lives in a confirmed case of COVID-19 since December 2019. The true numbers are suspected to be higher.
The effect of the pandemic on the healthcare system has been extreme, with cases overwhelming normal operations of hospitals during the initial surge in a number of regions, leading to staff exposure, illness, and in some cases, death. This was exacerbated by worldwide shortages in medical equipment, particularly personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers; shortages are still present in many parts of the world including the United States. Rationing of healthcare resources has been widely discussed, and in some areas implemented, creating agonizing decisions for doctors and families.
Healthcare organizations have also been starved of usual revenue, and despite an overwhelming demand for healthcare in some specialties and regions, other medical practices are seeing massive drops in income. Furloughs and pay cuts are becoming common across the American medical landscape. Telehealth visits are becoming common, and practices inside the hospital in many regions have completely transformed. In dense cities that have been handling an onslaught of patients for months, many frontline staff (ER, general medicine, ICU, etc) are physically and emotionally fatigued, yet still face a hazardous working environment.
Although some regions of the United States, Europe and Asia have been able to control the spread of COVID-19 with combinations of business shutdowns, shelter-in-place/quarantine orders, mandatory mask usage, and social distancing protocols, spread has accelerated in other regions of the United States, Brazil, Russia, and India among other areas. Public health interventions remain controversial in many areas, and particularly in the United States, have become politicized and rejected by many.
Medical science has struggled to keep pace with the spread of the virus. Despite a number of hastily executed clinical trials, few agents have been found to have any clinical effect on COVID-19 outcomes. Dexamethasone has emerged as the only treatment so far with a
demonstrated mortality benefit in patients requiring supplemental oxygen or ventilator support. In milder disease, remdesivir has been used, although with more mixed evidence. In outpatients, some monoclonal antibodies have shown reduction in subsequent hospitalization. Misinformation and partial information (such as leaks of interim clinical trial data) are rife. Clinical treatment algorithms have swung wildly based on small case series, anecdotes and conjecture, though a shaky consensus for critical supportive care is starting to emerge. Virologists, immunologists, and others have pivoted their usual research and an impressive number of preprints have been generated. However, enormous questions remain, such as the nature of post-infectious immunity.
As of December 2020, several vaccines across the world have received emergency use authorization, and vaccination has begun. Data on effectiveness and safety has been encouraging so far. Several virus variants have appeared around the globe with concern for increased infectious spread and risk that they will render vaccines ineffective before they have even been rolled out widely.
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COVID-19 Megathread #56
This is a megathread to consolidate discussion about the COVID-19 outbreak. This thread is a place for discussion, personal anecdotes of providing COVID care, brief updates, and professional questions about the epidemiology and management of COVID-19. Reputable sources (not unverified twitter posts!) are still requested to support any new claims about the outbreak.
We will be hosting a new megathread periodically depending on developments/content. The latest thread will always be stickied and will provide the most up-to-date information. If you just posted something in the previous thread right before it got unstickied and your question wasn't answered/your point wasn't discussed, feel free to repost it in the latest one. If the active COVID megathread isn't stickied, please notify the moderators
by modmail with a link to the thread.
Background and summary
On December 31st 2019, Chinese authorities reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. A novel zoonotic virus was suspected and discovered, now named SARS-CoV-2. The syndrome of viral pneumonia caused by this virus -- sometimes associated with abnormal coagulation parameters, anosmia, anorexia, renal failure, and/or gastrointestinal distress -- has been termed COVID-19.
Despite extreme public health interventions at the first epicenter in Hubei province, China, the outbreak has become a global pandemic. Several factors have made for explosive spread of SARS-CoV-2: the human population is immunologically naive, the virus has a long incubation period and can be asymptomatically spread, and is highly infectious, with an rate of transmission significantly higher than epidemic influenza. Unfortunately, COVID-19 has proven deadly as well, with case fatality rate (CFR) estimates ranging between 0.1 to 1% or more. To date, an estimated 63 million people have been infected and some 1.5 million people have lost their lives in a confirmed case of COVID-19 since December 2019. The true numbers are suspected to be higher.
The effect of the pandemic on the healthcare system has been extreme, with cases overwhelming normal operations of hospitals during the initial surge in a number of regions, leading to staff exposure, illness, and in some cases, death. This was exacerbated by worldwide shortages in medical equipment, particularly personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers; shortages are still present in many parts of the world including the United States. Rationing of healthcare resources has been widely discussed, and in some areas implemented, creating agonizing decisions for doctors and families.
Healthcare organizations have also been starved of usual revenue, and despite an overwhelming demand for healthcare in some specialties and regions, other medical practices are seeing massive drops in income. Furloughs and pay cuts are becoming common across the American medical landscape. Telehealth visits are becoming common, and practices inside the hospital in many regions have completely transformed. In dense cities that have been handling an onslaught of patients for months, many frontline staff (ER, general medicine, ICU, etc) are physically and emotionally fatigued, yet still face a hazardous working environment.
Although some regions of the United States, Europe and Asia have been able to control the spread of COVID-19 with combinations of business shutdowns, shelter-in-place/quarantine orders, mandatory mask usage, and social distancing protocols, spread has accelerated in other regions of the United States, Brazil, Russia, and India among other areas. Public health interventions remain controversial in many areas, and particularly in the United States, have become politicized and rejected by many.
Medical science has struggled to keep pace with the spread of the virus. Despite a number of hastily executed clinical trials, few agents have been found to have any clinical effect on COVID-19 outcomes. Dexamethasone has emerged as the only treatment so far with a
demonstrated mortality benefit in patients requiring supplemental oxygen or ventilator support. Misinformation and partial information (such as leaks of interim clinical trial data) are rife. Clinical treatment algorithms have swung wildly based on small case series, anecdotes and conjecture, though a shaky consensus for critical supportive care is starting to emerge. Virologists, immunologists, and others have pivoted their usual research and an impressive number of preprints have been generated. However, enormous questions remain, such as the nature of post-infectious immunity.
As of December, several vaccines across the world have received emergency use authorization, and vaccination has begun.
Subreddits:
Tracking/Maps/Modeling:
Resources from Organizational Bodies
Reminders
This subreddit is heavily moderated and comments may be removed without warning. In particular, users are reminded that this subreddit is for medical professionals—no personal health anecdotes or layperson questions are permitted. Users are reminded that in times of crisis or perceived crisis, laypeople on reddit may be turning to this professional subreddit and similar sources for information. Bad advice, pseudoscience, personal attacks, personal health situations, protected health information, and personal agendas are not permitted. The full subreddit rules can be found at
medicine/about/rules. Please review advice about commenting and posting on
medicine at
medicine/wiki/index and
medicine/wiki/faq. Though not mandatory, we ask users to please consider setting a subreddit flair on the sidebar before commenting to help contextualize their comments.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut issued a travel advisory Wednesday 24 June that requires people arriving from US states with significant community spread of Covid-19 to quarantine for 14 days... If you travel to the UK from a country outside of Ireland and the UK’s Crown Dependencies, you will have to self-isolate for 14 days, unless the country you are coming from is exempt.Our readers have asked us to explain the rules. If you have coronavirus symptoms, you should not travel.. When do you need to self-isolate? The government has published a list of countries and territories which The new quarantine rules will apply to UK nationals and residents arriving from countries where it's feared Covid variants may have already spread. British officials announced Friday that those traveling from the United States would still have to undergo a mandatory 14-day quarantine and would not be among those newly exempt from the rules. A nyone who arrives in the United Kingdom is now required to quarantine for 10 days—and those arriving in England must show proof of a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of departure.. Effective January 18, the U.K. canceled its travel corridor program, which allowed travelers from a frequently updated list of countries to bypass the otherwise mandatory 10-day quarantine requirement. From 15 February, when entering the UK from a country with a travel ban to the UK, you must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days. The UK government is set to introduce mandatory quarantine for international arrivals, with ministers divided on whether it should be imposed on all passengers or only those arriving from On 4 January 2021, the UK government introduced National lockdown: Stay at Home rules for England. You must not leave, or be outside of your place of residence except where necessary. The travel industry has welcomed the change in quarantine rules that will allow passengers returning to the UK from high-risk countries to reduce the time they self-isolate to five days, if they What are the quarantine rules in the UK? If you travel to any of the countries not on the Government’s ‘travel corridor’ list, you will have to self-isolate for 14 days when you return to
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